See how a leading rare disease oncology biopharma company moved from guesswork to precision by using Markov chain attribution to decode the healthcare professional (HCP) journey and unlock smarter channel investment.
Why attribution can't be an after thought
In rare disease oncology, promotional reach is narrow, and the cost of misaligned spend is high. A leading biopharma company was engaging HCPs across field visits, email, SMS, video, electronic health record (EHR) placements, and microsites but had no reliable way to understand which combination of touchpoints was driving first prescriptions. Without that clarity, budget decisions were based on assumptions rather than evidence.
Rules-based models cannot capture a non-linear HCP journey
Existing last-touch and rules-based attribution models were ill-suited to the complexity of multi-channel HCP engagement.
- An extensive channel mix made it impossible to isolate each touchpoint's true impact.
- Last-touch models over-credited the final interaction and ignored earlier journey-building channels.
- There was no visibility into how channels work together or where spend becomes wasteful.
A Markov chain attribution framework built for complex HCP journeys
Axtria designed a data-driven attribution model that traced each HCP's full promotional sequence and fairly credited every touchpoint.
- Data collection and sequencing
Non-personal promotion (NPP) and personal promotion (PP) interactions were organized chronologically by HCP, then linked to prescription outcomes to identify conversion events.
- Markov chain modeling
Transition probabilities mapped channel-to-channel movement across the journey. Removal effects measured each channel's marginal contribution to conversion.
- Attribution and segmentation
Channels were scored and classified by conversion rate and time to Rx, with high-intent HCPs flagged based on engagement patterns that matched historical converters.
Smarter spend, sharper targeting, and faster prescriptions
The model delivered six actionable outputs that directly improved how the commercial team engaged HCPs and allocated budget.
71%
The total attribution was driven by just 6 of 30 channels, enabling concentrated investment. |
25
The NPP touchpoint cap was identified to prevent over-investment and redirect the budget. |
0–7 days
The recency window was shown to shorten the journey from awareness to prescription. |
1,779
The total attribution was driven by just 6 of 30 channels, enabling concentrated investment. |
804
Sequence-matched HCPs provided a replicable engagement blueprint. |
561
HCPs were ready for immediate rep outreach, enabling data-driven call planning. |
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